Gorman said Kim provided a template of how to appeal to Asian American voters in an area, Orange County, that has grown tough for Republicans. She has “a background that we need more of in this party,” he said.

Kim and her allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside group connected to Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader, have spent upward of $1.5 million on the primary. In California congressional races, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, run on the same primary ballot, and the top two compete in the general election. The only Democrat on the ballot, Asif Mahmood, is expected to take one of those spots.

The late spending from Kim’s campaign and the Congressional Leadership Fund might be enough to keep her in the top two. Her leading Republican challenger, Raths, told us last week that he had been running a “stealth” campaign since early February, and that he was confident in his chances up until the barrage of spending from Kim and her allies.

“Now,” Raths said, “I’m a little nervous.”

Representative David Valadao of California

Why are election analysts putting a Central Valley seat in California that Biden carried by 13 percentage points in the “tossup” category?

Because of Valadao, the Republican incumbent.

After losing his seat to a Democrat in 2018, Valadao won it back in 2020. Now his concern is a fellow Republican: Chris Mathys, a businessman who said in an interview that he decided to run for Congress after Valadao voted to impeach Trump.

Valadao’s allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent $370,000 in the primary, according to AdImpact, which tracks ad spending, both promoting him and attacking Mathys. In one ad, the group calls Mathys “recklessly liberal.”

Valadao may be helped by the fact that, while Mathys has sought out Trump’s endorsement, he has been unable to secure it. Trump has endorsed challengers to every House Republican who voted to impeach him and is running for re-election — except for Valadao.