They found a significant decline in juvenile crime until around 2015, but the rate has stagnated since then. How did you capture that?
The surveys are based primarily on anonymized longitudinal surveys of young people themselves from a large number of countries. For example, ninth grade students are surveyed every few years. This makes it possible to see whether simple criminal acts such as shoplifting or property damage are becoming more common or less common. We assume they will answer honestly because their names will not be collected. In addition, there is a small group of young serious offenders in all countries who are difficult to reach in school surveys.
We analyzed several longitudinal studies and compared them with police data. That’s why we know that up to 90 percent of cases of simple crimes don’t end up with the police – the so-called dark field. Young people rarely talk about this with their parents or at school. It’s more of a trial or a pastime. On the other hand, the police become aware of young serious offenders more quickly and their cases are therefore more likely to become known.
How do we explain that criminal activity fell until 2015?
We tested a number of hypotheses and found that one in particular was confirmed across many countries: the leisure behavior of many young people has changed significantly.
To what extent?
The so-called unstructured leisure behavior, when young people meet up, chill out with each other and perhaps drink alcohol at the same time, has become much rarer. This means that they no longer just hang out with each other as often and then spontaneously get carried away into doing something that they might later regret. Young people today spend more time at home and at school, for example in all-day schools, and also spend more time online. But this trend started before the invention of social media.
The relationships between children and their parents have also improved significantly, and violence in their upbringing is less common. Parents today have more options to digitally supervise their children using smartphones or smartwatches, for example to check whether their child has arrived at school or at home, because they place more value on safety.
It sounds as if being together unstructured wouldn’t be very constructive.
Teens don’t automatically become criminals when they hang out with friends. It also depends on whether moral norms have been internalized and whether self-control is good enough. But the opportunities are important. As mentioned, the decline in juvenile crime has been stagnating since 2015, and there have also been opposing trends in recent years. Which influences play a role needs to be further investigated.
Dietrich Oberwittler is a sociologist and criminologist. He conducts research at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law in Freiburg
source
Oberwittler, D., & Svensson, R. (2025). The international youth crime drop: Evidence and explanations. Crime and Justice – A Review of Research. DOI: 10.1086/737409
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